World Bank Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.3%

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, citing improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.

The Washington-based financial institution disclosed this in its October 2026 Africa Economic Update, released on Tuesday.

The World Bank also projected that Nigeria’s economy would expand by 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.

According to the report, Nigeria’s economic activity is expected to strengthen from an estimated 4.0 per cent growth in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026, before rising slightly to 4.4 per cent in each of the following two years.

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The bank attributed the projected improvement to the impact of ongoing economic reforms, improved economic management and a gradual strengthening of private-sector activity.

The latest forecast comes after Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The World Bank said Nigeria was among African economies whose growth forecasts had been upgraded, reflecting signs of improved macroeconomic conditions.

It also raised its growth projection for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3 per cent in 2026, from its earlier forecast of 4.1 per cent.

The World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, said the region had demonstrated resilience despite a challenging global economic environment, including higher energy prices linked to disruptions arising from the conflict involving Iran.

Despite the improved outlook, however, the bank warned that stronger economic growth across Africa had yet to translate sufficiently into poverty reduction.

It noted that growth in per-capita income continued to lag behind overall economic expansion, limiting the extent to which ordinary citizens benefit from improved economic performance.

For Nigeria, the World Bank cautioned that the projected growth rate remained insufficient to generate enough productive jobs and significantly reduce poverty.

It further warned that elevated fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East could constrain poverty reduction, particularly because higher energy costs disproportionately affect low-income households.

The bank said Nigeria would need to sustain its economic reforms and attract greater private investment to convert macroeconomic stability into improved living standards.

It also identified better infrastructure, human capital development and stronger productivity as critical to achieving more inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Beyond traditional economic reforms, the World Bank urged African countries to take advantage of artificial intelligence and other digital technologies to boost productivity and create new employment opportunities.

However, it stressed that governments would need to address persistent infrastructure and skills gaps if the continent is to fully benefit from emerging technologies.