Current Growth Trajectory May Delay $1tn Ambition To 2040–Adesugba

Nigeria might not obtain its ambition of changing into a $1tn economic system till 2040 if it fails to speed up financial progress and deal with structural challenges limiting productiveness, former Managing Director and Chief Executive of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority (NEPZA), Professor Adesoji Adesugba, has warned.

Adesugba gave the warning whereas delivering the twentieth anniversary lecture of the Commerce and Industry Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CICAN) in Abuja.

He argued that Nigeria’s present progress trajectory was inadequate to attain the Federal Government’s 2030 goal.

According to him, the nation would require annual financial growth of roughly 28 per cent in greenback phrases to succeed in the goal inside the subsequent 5 years.

He stated Nigeria’s economic system was valued at between $285bn and $291bn in 2025, that means it must greater than triple in greenback phrases to attain the projected milestone by 2030.

Adesugba described the $1tn ambition as a goal for mobilising nationwide efforts quite than a assured financial consequence, stressing that its achievement would depend upon efficient coverage implementation.

“The $1tn economy is best understood not as a forecast but as a mobilisation target, and it will be won or lost on the quality of implementation rather than the quality of announcements,” he stated.

He defined that if Nigeria sustained actual gross home product (GDP) progress of between 4 and 4.5 per cent, alongside reasonable inflation and gradual depreciation of the naira, the economic system may attain about $450bn by 2030. Under that state of affairs, the $1tn goal may very well be delayed till round 2040.

However, stronger actual progress of six to seven per cent, mixed with a comparatively steady trade price, may raise the economic system to roughly $585bn by 2030 and produce the $1tn milestone nearer to 2034.

Even beneath a extra optimistic state of affairs involving stronger progress and appreciation of the naira in actual phrases, he estimated that the economic system may attain about $773bn by 2030.

The former NEPZA chief cautioned in opposition to counting on forex actions or nominal GDP figures to create the impression of financial progress with out corresponding enhancements in manufacturing, productiveness and employment.

Adesugba, who can be the First Deputy President of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), warned that headline financial figures would have little that means with no stronger productive base.

“A trillion-dollar economy built on a strong naira and weak factories would be a statistical achievement, not an economic one,” he stated.

While acknowledging enhancements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators, Adesugba stated the positive aspects had but to translate into ample funding in productive sectors.

He cited actual GDP progress of 4.43 per cent within the second quarter of 2026, first-half progress of 4.16 per cent and a discount in headline inflation to 14.63 per cent in September as indicators of progress.

He additionally pointed to international trade reserves of $55.25bn and a narrowing hole between official and parallel market trade charges as proof that financial reforms had been delivering some stabilisation advantages.

However, he recognized the composition of capital inflows, unreliable electrical energy provide and weak industrial growth as main obstacles to attaining the $1tn goal.

According to him, capital importation stood at $10.37bn within the first quarter of 2026, however international direct funding accounted for less than $135.08m, representing 1.3 per cent of the full.

He added that roughly 73 per cent of the inflows went into the banking sector, whereas manufacturing acquired about 1.5 per cent and agriculture lower than one per cent.

Adesugba distinguished between portfolio investments, which may assist monetary market stability, and international direct funding, which may set up factories, broaden productive capability and create jobs.

He warned that Nigeria may expertise an outflow of some portfolio investments as rates of interest decline until improved financial situations encourage longer-term investments in manufacturing, agriculture, mining, logistics and different productive industries.

Inadequate electrical energy provide, he stated, was one other main barrier to attaining the trillion-dollar ambition.

Although Nigeria had an put in nationwide grid capability of 13,625 megawatts, common obtainable capability was solely 4,758MW in August 2026, forcing companies to rely closely on costly various energy sources.

“No economy of 220 million people has ever approached a trillion dollars on five gigawatts of grid power,” he stated.

To deal with the problem, Adesugba known as for larger precedence to be given to electrical energy sector reforms. He advisable improved gas-to-power preparations, funding in transmission infrastructure, sooner deployment of electrical energy meters and the event of state electrical energy markets beneath the Electricity Act 2023.