Ukraine making 'dangerous' assumptions as all-out war fears rise

A military expert said the war in Ukraine is “moving into a new phase” while Ukraine is making “dangerous” assumptions.

Michael Clarke was interviewed by Sky News on Thursday, as the war, which began in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, shows no signs of stopping. Clarke told the outlet that Russia has been “making incremental progress” toward Ukrainian “fortress cities” while soldiers in Ukraine have been “hitting back locally”. However, he added that progress is still going at a “snail’s pace”.

​The British academic, who specializes in defense studies, then added, “I think we’re moving into a new phase,” and explained that Russia and Ukraine are “hurting each other now to a degree that is going to push it to some sort of crisis.”

Interestingly, Clarke said this could end up being worse for the Russians as “Russia has a much greater capacity to be hurt because it hasn’t been hurt very much so far as a society.”

He also cautioned Ukraine, saying that it is “poking the bear in the eye” in the hope that Russia will retreat, but that this is a “dangerous assumption.”

“The Ukrainians are escalating the nature of the war by hurting the Russians in ways that they couldn’t hurt them before,” he said. Meanwhile, he described Russia as being “under pressure” and unable to push its way to victory.

Putin’s “next best option” is to “frighten” Ukraine’s European allies into ending their support, while the U.S. is distancing itself from supporting Ukraine.

It comes as Ukraine continues to strike Russia’s oil facilities and huge retail warehouses.

Ukrainian long-range drones struck a warehouse in the Ural Mountains belonging to Russia’s largest online retailer, located more than 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) from the border between the two nations, local authorities and the company confirmed on Friday.

Ukraine has consistently targeted locations deep in the Urals throughout the year, and has even struck a Russian oil refinery in western Siberia, nearly 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles) from the border. These strikes highlight how Kyiv has leveraged drone technology as a critical component of its defense strategy against the invasion by its significantly larger adversary, now more than four years into the conflict.

​The successes achieved have garnered substantial international attention, resulting in drone cooperation agreements with nine countries, while deals with an additional 15 nations are currently being negotiated, according to Kyiv officials.

​Meanwhile, Russia launched an assault on Ukraine using 147 long-range strike drones, the country’s air force reported.

In Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, a Russian drone targeted a crowded market on Friday morning, leaving 10 people injured, authorities confirmed. Russia additionally deployed glide bombs and various types of drones against the regional capital, according to regional administration head Oleh Hryhorov.

The assault targeted residential buildings, transportation networks, and infrastructure, resulting in two additional casualties, he stated.