NNPC Eyes $21bn From Bonga South-West Aparo Deals

▪️Inside the Bonga South-West Aparo, BSWAp: What to Know about one of the biggest energy projects in the world, and How NNPC, Shell, Exxon, Agip Locked In the deal

Nigeria has taken its boldest step yet toward reviving deepwater oil and gas investment. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPC Ltd, and its partners have signed the final commercial agreements to advance the Bonga South-West/Aparo, BSWAp, project — a development projected to attract up to $21 billion and peak at 175,000 barrels of oil per day.

The agreements, announced on Sunday, include an Addendum to the OML 118 Production Sharing Contract, PSC, and an Addendum to the Dispute Settlement Agreement, DSA. The signatories are NNPC Ltd, Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited, SNEPCo, Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria (Deepwater) Limited, and Nigerian Agip Exploration Limited, NAE.

In a statement signed by NNPC Ltd’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, the company described the signing as “a major milestone” in pushing the BSWAp project toward Final Investment Decision, FID.

The PSC and DSA addenda give legal effect to the fiscal and commercial terms earlier approved by the Federal Government. According to NNPC, the new terms are designed to support the development of BSWAp and to signal that Nigeria is open for large-scale, long-cycle deepwater investment.

“This reinforces Nigeria’s commitment to creating a competitive, stable and attractive environment for large-scale deepwater investment,” the statement read.

The numbers behind the project are staggering. BSWAp is expected to be one of Nigeria’s largest deepwater developments, with the potential to attract between US$15 billion and US$21 billion in investment over its life cycle.

At peak production, the project is forecast to deliver about 175,000 barrels of oil per day, kbopd, and 140 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, mmscfd. That volume alone could significantly boost Nigeria’s current output and government revenue.

Speaking on the milestone, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, linked the deal directly to President Bola Tinubu’s oil and gas reforms.

“The execution of the BSWAp PSC and DSA Addenda demonstrates the effectiveness of President Tinubu’s reforms in translating policy into investment,” Ojulari said.

He framed the project not just as barrels and dollars, but as proof of concept. “This is about unlocking a major deepwater project and demonstrating that Nigeria has a competitive fiscal framework and a clear pathway for sustainable investment in its energy sector,” the GCEO added.

Ojulari further assured that NNPC Ltd will continue to work closely with the Federal Government, its partners and other stakeholders to ensure the project delivers “maximum value for the Federation and the Nigerian people.”

For the Contractor Parties, the signing also marks technical progress. They announced the successful completion of the project’s Pre-Front End Engineering Design, Pre-FEED, phase.

The completion of Pre-FEED is critical. It means the technical and commercial scope of BSWAp has been matured and de-risked enough to move into the next phase of planning.

With Pre-FEED concluded, the project is now positioned to progress into the Front End Engineering Design, FEED, phase, subject to partner approvals and governance requirements. FEED is typically the last major step before FID.

For an economy battling revenue shortfalls and declining output, BSWAp represents more than a project. It is a test of whether Nigeria’s new fiscal regime can compete with Guyana, Angola and Brazil for deepwater dollars. If FID is reached, the $21 billion bet could redefine Nigeria’s energy story for the next two decades.

Bonga South-West Aparo, BSWAp

Bonga South-West Aparo, BSWAp, is described as one of Nigeria’s largest deepwater projects, but not the single biggest ever in terms of peak output.

Here’s the context from current reports:

How big is BSWAp

– Investment: Expected to attract $15 billion to $21 billion over the life of the project.
– Production target: Peak of about 175,000 barrels of oil per day and 140 mmscfd of gas.
– Other estimates put it at 150,000 bopd and 140 mmscfd, or up to 225,000 bopd in earlier projections.

Why it’s called “one of the largest”
NNPC itself says BSWAp “is expected to be one of Nigeria’s largest deepwater developments”.

NOP NIGERIA previously described it as “one of the world’s largest deepwater oil and gas projects set to develop 800 million barrels recoverable reserves”.

The comparison point: Egina and Bonga

– BSWAp will be “the first major deepwater project in Nigeria since Egina, which started development in 2013”.
– It will also be “the first FID on a Nigerian deepwater PSC asset since 2008”.
– The existing Bonga Complex is already in production, and Bonga North West peaked at 40,000 BOE/D. Egina, which started in 2013, peaked at about 200,000 bopd — slightly higher than BSWAp’s current 175,000 bopd target.

Why the $21bn tag matters

Shell CEO Wael Sawan said BSWAp “could potentially… invest around $20 billion foreign direct investment” and that it would be “among the biggest energy projects in the world”.

The new fiscal incentives from President Tinubu were specifically designed to unlock this scale of investment.

Bottom line:

BSWAp isn’t bigger than Egina in peak oil rate, but in terms of total investment size, reserves, and strategic importance, it is being positioned as one of Nigeria’s largest and most significant deepwater projects — and the first major FID in nearly 15 years. That’s why NNPC and Shell are calling it a “game-changer” for Nigeria’s deepwater sector.

NOP NIGERIA