Bauchi 2027: Bala Mohammed faces double battle over successor, Senate seat

Former Governor Adamu Mu’azu, who ruled between 1999 and 2007, couldn’t preserve energy inside his political camp, as Isa Yuguda succeeded him. Yuguda, who ruled from 2007 to 2015, additionally failed to put in his most popular successor, Mohammed Abubakar, who misplaced the 2019 governorship election to Bala Mohammed.

The wrestle to retain political affect after leaving workplace has additionally proved tough for former governors searching for election to the Senate.

In 2007, Mu’azu misplaced the Bauchi South senatorial seat to Bala Mohammed, who was then a Special Adviser to the Minister of Aviation, Isa Yuguda.

Similarly, Yuguda misplaced his bid to signify the district within the Senate in 2015 to Ali Wakili of the APC.

These experiences elevate questions on Mohammed’s possibilities of returning to the Senate after finishing his tenure as governor.

An analyst and lecturer at Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Comrade Abdullahi Yelwa, mentioned the governor would face an uphill job in making an attempt to put in his successor and return to the Senate.

He mentioned the state’s political historical past confirmed that governors typically struggled to retain energy via their most popular candidates.

“It is very difficult for a serving governor to bring his successor. From 1999 to date, that has not happened. And no former governor has also become a senator after leaving office.

“Look at what happened to Adamu Mu’azu. He did excellently well in terms of projects, acceptability and connections. Yet Kauran Bauchi defeated him when he was just a Special Adviser to the Minister of Aviation, Isa Yuguda,” Yelwa mentioned.

The problem earlier than Yakubu Adamu

For the APM, the largest query is whether or not Yakubu Adamu can win the governorship election with Mohammed’s help or construct sufficient private political capital to compete with opposition candidates.

Although the governor has spent years constructing his political community, Adamu must persuade voters that he can lead the state independently slightly than rely solely on Mohammed’s affect.

Yelwa believes the APM is closely depending on the governor and will wrestle if its candidate fails to draw help past Mohammed’s political followers.

“The APM is hanging on the neck of the serving governor. Yakubu does not have his own political empire. He is relying on his godfather.

“If Yakubu has his own votes and Bala’s supporters also support him, then they can make a difference. But if you ask me whether Yakubu has his own votes, I will say no,” he mentioned.

The analyst additionally warned that Mohammed’s achievements in workplace may not be sufficient to ensure victory for his most popular candidate.

He mentioned that though the governor had launched into a number of initiatives throughout the state, some residents remained dissatisfied over the rising value of dwelling, compensation for homes affected by highway development and the federal government’s failure to award contracts to some individuals who had anticipated them.

Yelwa mentioned these points may have an effect on the APM’s probabilities if opposition events capitalised on them to problem the administration.

“Bala has done well in terms of projects, but you cannot also ignore the fact that inflation has affected the people. Some people are also angry over compensation for houses affected by road projects, while others expected contracts and were disappointed,” he mentioned.

The Senate race

While the governorship contest will decide whether or not Mohammed can set up his most popular successor, his Senate ambition will rely largely on his skill to safe help throughout Bauchi South.

The district includes seven native authorities areas: Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa and Toro.

Mohammed’s place as governor might give him a bonus within the state, however the Senate election can be decided by voters in these seven native authorities areas. His recognition throughout Bauchi State might not essentially translate into sufficient votes to defeat his opponents within the district.

The outcomes of earlier elections additionally present that the APC has maintained a powerful presence within the senatorial district.

In the 2019 election, the APC polled 250,725 votes in opposition to the PDP’s 175,527. In 2023, the APC retained the seat via Senator Shehu Buba Umar, who defeated the PDP candidate, Dahiru Garba.

Buba is now contesting for the governorship on the platform of the PRP after defecting from the APC.

His defection got here days after he withdrew from the APC governorship major election within the state, citing alleged irregularities and violations of electoral legal guidelines and occasion tips.

Buba introduced his resignation from the ruling occasion yesterday, saying his determination was knowledgeable by what he described because the absence of inner democracy, lack of equity, marginalisation of real occasion members and disrespect for the aspirations of grassroots supporters.

Aside from Buba, different distinguished figures who’ve additionally left the occasion embody former Bauchi State Deputy Governor, Alhaji Sagir Aminu Saleh; former two-time APC governorship aspirant, Captain Muhammad Bala Jibrin; and Hon. Sunusi Aliyu Kunde, a detailed affiliate of former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, amongst others.

The wave of resignations is coming regardless of reconciliation efforts by the APC, together with these of the state reconciliation committee led by former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara.

Political observers imagine Buba would have been a stronger candidate for the APC if the occasion had allowed him to contest below its platform.

Yelwa argued that the senator already had a political construction and supporters of his personal, which may have strengthened the APC’s probabilities when mixed with votes anticipated from supporters of President Bola Tinubu.

“Buba would have been stronger for APC. He has his own structure and votes. If you combine that with Tinubu’s votes, the calculation would have been different,” he mentioned.

APC’s Mohammed Abubakar and Tinubu’s affect

Meanwhile, controversy has trailed former Governor Mohammed Abubakar’s emergence because the APC’s governorship candidate for the 2027 election.

Abubakar, who ruled Bauchi between 2015 and 2019, can be searching for a return to the Government House after shedding his re-election bid to Mohammed.

His expertise as a former governor and the backing of the ruling occasion on the federal degree may strengthen his marketing campaign. However, questions stay about his recognition amongst voters and whether or not the APC can win the state by counting on President Tinubu’s affect.

Yelwa mentioned the previous governor had some benefits however was not as in style in Bauchi because the President.

“M.A. has prospects because he has the backing of the national government, but he is not very popular in Bauchi. Tinubu is more popular than M.A. in Bauchi.

“If Tinubu wants to win Bauchi, he should have picked somebody who has his own acceptability and votes instead of relying on Tinubu’s votes,” he mentioned.

He warned the APC in opposition to assuming that Tinubu’s place as President would robotically assure victory for its candidates within the state.

“Tinubu is a strong politician. He is a bulldozer. But he should not assume that, because he is president, everything will automatically go for him in Bauchi,” Yelwa added.

The APC will due to this fact need to persuade voters that Abubakar can entice help past the President’s recognition, particularly in a state the place Mohammed nonetheless has a powerful political presence.

ADC and the Atiku issue

The ADC can also be anticipated to play a serious position within the 2027 election, with Aliyu Halliru Jika rising as its governorship candidate.

The occasion may gain advantage from the affect of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, notably within the North-East, the place he has maintained a powerful political following.

The ADC might also entice voters dissatisfied with the present financial scenario and people searching for an alternative choice to the APC and APM.

Yelwa mentioned the occasion may gain advantage from protest votes if Atiku’s supporters mobilised behind its candidates.

“It can be a four-horse race. The ADC can get protest votes because of Atiku. In Bauchi, sometimes people follow the wind of change at the national level.

“Atiku may not defeat Tinubu nationally, but ADC can win some Senate seats and even governorship votes in the Northeast because of the Atiku factor,” he mentioned.

He added that the financial difficulties going through Nigerians may make some voters contemplate the ADC if the occasion promised to handle points comparable to taxation, gasoline costs and the price of dwelling.

“People are looking for a way out of this hardship. If Atiku comes and says he will reverse some of these things, reduce taxes and address the fuel problem, there will be people who will listen to him,” Yelwa mentioned.

However, the ADC may even must persuade voters that it has the candidates and political constructions to translate public dissatisfaction into electoral help.

Yelwa mentioned the competition may very well be tough to foretell as a result of the 4 main events had completely different strengths and will share the votes.

“It is too early to say who will win. It can be a four-horse race, and the votes can be divided among the candidates,” he mentioned.