Nigeria’s current account surplus hits $5.0bn in Q1 2026

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s Balance of Payments (BoP) show that Nigeria recorded a current account (CA) surplus of $5.0 billion in the first quarter of 2026, significantly higher than $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $3.4bn in the first quarter of 2025.

The improved surplus on the CA was primarily driven by a sharp increase in the trade surplus, which advanced to $6.0 billion from $1.8 billion in the prior quarter. The stronger trade balance reflected an improvement in export earnings alongside a moderation in import demand.

Merchandise exports increased by 16 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to $15.5 billion, primarily driven by stronger crude oil export earnings.

Crude oil export receipts increased to $8.1 billion in Q1 2026 from $6.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by elevated global oil prices.

Export proceeds benefited from a higher geopolitical risk premium arising from heightened tensions in the Middle East, which supported Bonny Light crude prices.

Additional support came from higher gas exports and refined petroleum product exports, which increased to $2.5 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively, from $2.2 billion and $2.0 billion in the previous quarter.

The Dangote Refinery’s expanding operational capacity has not only reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products but has also enhanced the country’s emergence as a key regional supplier of refined petroleum products.

Turning to imports, total imports declined to $9.5 billion from $11.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. The moderation was driven by lower imports of both non-oil goods and oil-and-gas-related products, which fell by 10 per cent QoQ and 40 per cent QoQ to $7.9 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.

The CA also benefited from a strong surplus of US$5.6bn on the secondary income account. However, this was lower than the $6.2 billion surplus posted in the fourth quarter of 2025.

According to Proshare, the moderation was driven by a slight decline in remittance inflows and other current transfers, which eased to $5.3 billion from $5.7 billion in the prior quarter.

Conversely, the services and primary income accounts remained in deficit, posting shortfalls of $3.7 billion and $2.8 billion, respectively.

“Looking ahead, we expect Nigeria’s current account surplus to improve further in the second quarter of 2026, supported by favourable developments on both the export and import fronts.

“On the export side, higher crude oil production and sustained elevation in global oil prices are expected to boost export receipts and support the trade balance.

“On the import front, the continued ramp-up of Dangote Refinery’s operations should further reduce reliance on imported petroleum products, lower the fuel import bill, and widen the trade surplus.

“That said, Nigeria’s structurally import-dependent economy is likely to sustain demand for intermediate goods, machinery, and capital equipment, which could moderate the pace of import compression”, said Proshare.